Democracies end when they are too democratic.
If you are American, SSC endorses voting in this presidential election. Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, and Aaron Edlin calculate the chance that a single vote will determine the election ie break a tie in a state that breaks an Electoral College tie.
It ranges from about one in ten million if you live in a swing state to one in a billion if you live in a very safe state. The average American has a one in sixty million chance of determining the election results. The paper was from the election, which was a pro-Obama landslide; since this election is closer the chance of determining it may be even higher.
But Presidents do shift budgetary priorities a lot.
Neither of these are pure costs — Obamacare buys us more health care, and military presence in Iraq buys us [mumble] — but if you think these are less or more efficient ways to spend money than other possible uses, then they represent ways that having one President might be better than another.
In order to add signal rather than noise to the election results, we have to be better than the average voter. I recommend the Outside View — looking for measurable indicators correlated with ability to make good choices.
IQ might be another. Suppose you live in a swing state. If you value the amount of time it takes to vote at less than that, voting is conceivably a good use of your time. SSC endorses voting for Hillary Clinton if you live in a swing state.
If you live in a safe state, I endorse voting for Clinton, Johnson, or if you insist Stein. If you want, you can use a vote-swapping site to make this easier or more impactful.
I think Donald Trump would be a bad president. Partly this is because of his policies, insofar as he has them. But the latest news says: This is going to be close.
And since the lesson of Brexit is that polls underestimate support for politically incorrect choicesthis is going to be really close. But if some of my blogging on conservative issues has given me any political capital with potential Trump voters, then I this is where I want to spend it. So here are some reasons why I would be afraid to have Trump as president even if I agreed with him about the issues.
Many conservatives make the argument against utopianism. These same conservatives have traced this longing through leftist history from Lenin through social justice.
Which of the candidates in this election are millennarian? If Stein were in, same, no contest. The left and right both critique Hillary the same way. All she wants to do is make little tweaks — a better tax policy here, a new foreign policy doctrine there.
The critiques are right. Hillary represents complete safety from millennialism. In my review of Singer on MarxI wrote that: It seemed like a pretty big gap.The Associated Press delivers in-depth coverage on today's Big Story including top stories, international, politics, lifestyle, business, entertainment, and more.
Genesis â€œSodom and Gomorrah's destruction:â€ The story of Sodom and Gomorrah. Basically, God says that He's going to destroy cities of Sodom and Gomorrah, if two angels cannot find any good people within the towns.
Donald Trump Says “Ask the Gays?” Here’s our Answer: Donald Trump has been a consistent opponent of marriage equality. He has embraced the nation’s most odious anti-LGBTQ law, North Carolina’s HB2, and put on the ticket Mike Pence, who has become the face of anti-LGBTQ discrimination after signing a bill to allow businesses to discriminate and deny service to LGBTQ people because of.
Mackubin Thomas Owens writes in The Wall Street Journal that open homosexuality would threaten unit cohesion and military effectiveness. The Case Against Gays in the Military Comparison of.
There is a popular point of view in some of Russia’s political circles, especially among those who profess monarchist views and cling to a famous meme of Tsarist Russia development statistics, that WW I was started by Germany to forestall Russia’s industrial development which would inevitably challenge Germany’s plans on domination of Europe.
See, "The Case Against Gays in the Military" (via Memeorandum): Winning the nation's wars is the military's functional imperative. Indeed, it is the only reason for a liberal society to maintain a military organization.